I have told people for over 20 years that one day we will see China attack the United States.  Most reply with, “You’re nuts!”  Which, I can understand their sentiment, but have reason behind my thinking.

The typical arguments against such an event occurring are:

1.    “They depend on us financially via exports.”
2.    “We are far superior militarily with men and technology.”
3.     “They have millions of troops, but have no way to get them to us.  They have no white-water ships.”

Admittedly, all of these arguments were true at one time.  However, things have changed, a lot, over the last few decades.  Allow me to explain and share an expert insider’s opinion.

That insider is Bill Gertz who you may have seen recently on TV reporting on a topic in D.C.  As a thirty year journalist and having inside information due to his position, he has a view that most of us do not.

Indulge me briefly to share information relevant to China’s status regarding these arguments.

First, the argument that China depends on us.  True to an extent, but not totally.  Although everything we buy seems to come from China, we are not the only importers of their goods — there is afterall Europe.  A key point to consider is that the world is facing a ‘global economic downturn’ — possibly a depression.  (Europe is facing a depression now.)  When that happens, China will export less, not more.  Consequently their economy will be impacted significantly.

Already their economy is showing signs of slowing down.  Combine that with their ego driven expenditures on crazy building — unoccupied skyscrapers, etc.  — which leads to potential catastrophic economic collapse.  They are blowing their money on those things that they believe will make the party members rich, and their military big.

The point being with the world’s current economic projections, combined with China’s mishandling of funds, they are (as well as other nations) headed for a crash.  When that happens, communist China will do what all communist states do when they are in trouble — point to someone else as the problem.  That target will be America — the shining light of freedom for this world and the arch-enemy of communism.

As for our military superiority, that is true to an extent.  Our troops possess a much higher level of education and are totally voluntary.  Both of these attributes point to our having, pound for pound, better troops and who are self-motivated.  But, to my knowledge their numbers have been dwindling annually ever since Clinton and have taken a nose dive since Obama.  Worse, their morale has been beaten to death with our current commander’s poor leadership and constant demeaning of the military.  Several G.I.s are killed on a military base and he claims it was work-place violence..!?

Our technology is impressive and has been for several years.  However, China’s has not been standing still.  Whereas they had 40’s era nuclear devices in the 90’s, they are now close to what we have and still climbing the technical ladder.  (Their funds into weapons research isn’t limited as ours is today.)  What they can’t invent, they steal.  Missiles are a similar story.  Before the Clinton era, their missiles were only good for a few hundred miles.  Today, they have not only multi-thousand mile capable missiles, but satellites capable of war also.   I won’t belabor this point, but will leave it to Mr. Gertz to clarify.

In the early 90’s China really didn’t have a ‘white-water navy’ either.  Because their navy was so limited, they couldn’t even reasonably attack Taiwan!  (That 300 mile expanse of water is pretty treacherous.)  Today, they now have almost 200 naval ships capable of traveling thousands of miles at sea (and are actively building more and upgrading others).  The last I heard, they owned over 50 submarines of which at least 20 were nuclear Trident class, capable of launching at least eight ICBMs with multi-warheads — that can reach the U.S.

Below I have included a document which is a condensation of Mr. Gertz’s book ‘The China Threat’.  By reading the shorter text (link) below, you will get the gist of the entire book without reading 203 pages of it.  But before you start reading that text, consider this:  his entire book is dedicated to the impact Bill Clinton had on our security and secrets lost while he was in office.  While reading it, try to imagine what the current president has done while in office and how his actions could impact our situation in the future.?!

The China Threat – Excerpts from the titled book

Based partially on the above, I will go so far as to predict that China will potentially attack Taiwan within the next two years.  Why?  For two reasons:  Because I believe that China believes that our country will not have weaker leadership than what we currently have (the next two years).  Therefore their political window may be closed after that and they would have lost a perfect opportunity.  And their big factor is Taiwan keeps a stick in the eye of China by remaining free and prosperous — contrary to the communist mainland.  I assume they are getting very tired of Taiwan’s success.  Go figure.!?

Ask yourself, what would Obama’s response be to Taiwan when they asked for help.??  Do you think he would send multiple carriers to sit off their coast?  Would they fire on the Chinese?  My answers are all ‘no’!!  He’d probably send the Chinese a gift or a thank you note.!!

As a final note:  The Chinese government has gone so far as to state publicly that they are willing to lose 500 million people in a conflict.  (That would leave them with only 700 million!)  Having millions of people living in poverty, that loss would lead to a more functional society in their view — i.e., fewer mouths to feed.  In effect, a war would be a solution to their economical issues.

As they say…   “Time will tell.!?!”